- Mathematical Modeling of the Novel Influenza A (H1N1) Virus and Evaluation of the Epidemic Response Strategies in the Republic of Korea.
-
Mina Suh, Jeehyun Lee, Hye Jin Chi, Young Keun Kim, Dae Yong Kang, Nam Wook Hur, Kyung Hwa Ha, Dong Han Lee, Chang Soo Kim
-
J Prev Med Public Health. 2010;43(2):109-116.
-
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.2010.43.2.109
-
-
15,600
View
-
219
Download
-
11
Crossref
-
 Abstract
 PDF
- OBJECTIVES
The pandemic of novel influenza A (H1N1) virus has required decision-makers to act in the face of the substantial uncertainties. In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of the pandemic response strategies in the Republic of Korea using a mathematical model. METHODS: We developed a deterministic model of a pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in a structured population using the demographic data from the Korean population and the epidemiological feature of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009. To estimate the parameter values for the deterministic model, we used the available data from the previous studies on pandemic influenza. The pandemic response strategies of the Republic of Korea for novel influenza A (H1N1) virus such as school closure, mass vaccination (70% of population in 30 days), and a policy for anti-viral drug (treatment or prophylaxis) were applied to the deterministic model. RESULTS: The effect of two-week school closure on the attack rate was low regardless of the timing of the intervention. The earlier vaccination showed the effect of greater delays in reaching the peak of outbreaks. When it was no vaccination, vaccination at initiation of outbreak, vaccination 90 days after the initiation of outbreak and vaccination at the epidemic peak point, the total number of clinical cases for 400 days were 20.8 million, 4.4 million, 4.7 million and 12.6 million, respectively. The pandemic response strategies of the Republic of Korea delayed the peak of outbreaks (about 40 days) and decreased the number of cumulative clinical cases (8 million). CONCLUSIONS: Rapid vaccination was the most important factor to control the spread of pandemic influenza, and the response strategies of the Republic of Korea were shown to delay the spread of pandemic influenza in this deterministic model.
-
Summary
-
Citations
Citations to this article as recorded by  - Estimation of optimal antiviral stockpile for a novel influenza pandemic
Soyoung Kim, Yu Bin Seo, Jacob Lee, Yang Soo Kim, Eunok Jung
Journal of Infection and Public Health.2022; 15(7): 720. CrossRef - Projections for novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and evaluation of epidemic response strategies for India
Seema Patrikar, Deepti Poojary, D.R. Basannar, D.S. Faujdar, Renuka Kunte
Medical Journal Armed Forces India.2020; 76(3): 268. CrossRef - Prediction of the Transition From Subexponential to the Exponential Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Chennai, India: Epidemic Nowcasting
Kamalanand Krishnamurthy, Bakiya Ambikapathy, Ashwani Kumar, Lourduraj De Britto
JMIR Public Health and Surveillance.2020; 6(3): e21152. CrossRef - Mathematical model of transmission dynamics and optimal control strategies for 2009 A/H1N1 influenza in the Republic of Korea
Soyoung Kim, Jonggul Lee, Eunok Jung
Journal of Theoretical Biology.2017; 412: 74. CrossRef - A real option analysis for stochastic disease control and vaccine stockpile policy: An application to H1N1 in Korea
Hojeong Park
Economic Modelling.2016; 53: 187. CrossRef - Stochastic methods for epidemic models: An application to the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak in Korea
Hyojung Lee, Sunmi Lee, Chang Hyeong Lee
Applied Mathematics and Computation.2016; 286: 232. CrossRef - Schools’ Response to MERS(MERS-CoV) Outbreak: Schools’ Discretionary Response in Absence of Control Tower
In Sook Lee, Jae Hee Yoon, Eun Joo Hong, Chae Yoon Kim
Journal of the Korean Society of School Health.2015; 28(3): 188. CrossRef - The Effects of School Closures on Influenza Outbreaks and Pandemics: Systematic Review of Simulation Studies
Charlotte Jackson, Punam Mangtani, Jeremy Hawker, Babatunde Olowokure, Emilia Vynnycky, Gerardo Chowell
PLoS ONE.2014; 9(5): e97297. CrossRef - Uncertainty Quantification in Simulations of Epidemics Using Polynomial Chaos
F. Santonja, B. Chen-Charpentier
Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine.2012; 2012: 1. CrossRef - Characteristics of Outpatients with Pandemic H1N1/09 Influenza in a Tertiary Care University Hospital in Korea
Kyung Sun Park, Tae Sung Park, Jin Tae Suh, You Sun Nam, Mi Suk Lee, Hee Joo Lee
Yonsei Medical Journal.2012; 53(1): 213. CrossRef - Epidemiological Characteristics of Imported Influenza A (H1N1) Cases during the 2009 Pandemic in Korea
Jun Kil Choi, Sang Won Lee, Bo Youl Choi
Epidemiology and Health.2012; 34: e2012009. CrossRef
|
KSPM
